The UK Ministry of Defense has sounded the alarm, predicting that Russia could lose a staggering 500,000 troops by the close of 2024.
The ominous projection comes as a result of a concerning surge in daily casualties, with the average number of Russian soldiers falling victim to the conflict in Ukraine rising by nearly 300 over the past year, as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
The methodology behind these figures, however, remains unverified, raising questions about the precision of the assessment.
The accuracy of the data presented by the Ukrainian General Staff has yet to be confirmed.
The root cause of this alarming casualty trend, according to the UK Ministry of Defense, can be traced back to a significant turning point in September 2022.
It was during this period that Russia initiated a partial mobilization of military reservists, a move that, in the eyes of the department, transformed the once formidable Russian military into what they describe as a “low quality, high quantity mass army.”
Analysts have further underscored this transformation, characterizing Russia’s tactics in Ukraine as “human wave tactics.”
This strategy involves deploying large numbers of inadequately trained soldiers to the battlefield, resulting in disproportionately high casualty rates.
A notable example of this approach was witnessed in a recent series of near-suicidal tank assaults on the eastern front, where Russian forces repeatedly attempted identical maneuvers in a Ukrainian forest, only to be thwarted seven times.
John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, condemned Russia’s apparent disregard for the lives of its own soldiers, labeling it as a deliberate sacrifice in pursuit of Putin’s goals.
The grim reality is exacerbated by Russia’s secrecy regarding casualty figures, with US intelligence estimating that approximately 315,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since the war’s inception.
This staggering toll represents around 90% of the personnel Russia had at the beginning of the conflict, underscoring the magnitude of the crisis facing the Russian military.